Analytical Channel Model and Link Design Optimization for Ground-to-HAP Free-Space Optical Communication Networks

Integrating high altitude platforms (HAPs) and free-space optical (FSO) communications is a promising solution to establish high data rate aerial links for the next-generation wireless networks. However, practical limitations such as pointing errors and angle-of-arrival (AOA) fluctuations of the optical beam due to the orientation deviations of hovering HAPs make it challenging to implement HAP-based FSO links. For a ground-to-HAP FSO link, tractable, closed-form statistical channel models are derived in this paper to simplify the optimal design of such systems. The proposed models include the combined effects of atmospheric turbulence regimes (i.e., log-normal and gamma-gamma), pointing error induced geometrical loss, pointing jitter variance caused by beam wander, detector aperture size, beam-width, and AOA fluctuations of the received optical beam. The analytical expressions are corroborated by performing Monte-Carlo simulations. Furthermore, closed-form expressions for the outage probability of the considered link under different turbulence regimes are derived. Detailed analysis is carried out to optimize the transmitted laser beam and the field-of-view of the receiver for minimizing outage probability under different channel conditions. The obtained analytical results can be applied to finding the optimal parameter values and designing ground-to-HAP FSO links without resorting to time-consuming simulations.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, accepted on May 22, 2020, for publication in IEEE/OSA Journal of Lightwave Technolog

Analytical Channel Model and Link Design Optimization for Ground-to-HAP Free-Space Optical Communications

Integrating high altitude platforms (HAPs) and free-space optical (FSO) communications is a promising solution to establish high data rate aerial links for the next-generation wireless networks. However, practical limitations such as pointing errors and angle-of-arrival (AOA) fluctuations of the optical beam due to the orientation deviations of hovering HAPs make it challenging to implement HAP-based FSO links. For a ground-to-HAP FSO link, tractable, closed-form statistical channel models are derived in this paper to simplify the optimal design of such systems. The proposed models include the combined effects of atmospheric turbulence regimes (i.e., log-normal and gamma-gamma), pointing error induced geometrical loss, pointing jitter variance caused by beam wander, detector aperture size, beam-width, and AOA fluctuations of the received optical beam. The analytical expressions are corroborated by performing Monte-Carlo simulations. Furthermore, closed-form expressions for the outage probability of the considered link under different turbulence regimes are derived. Detailed analysis is carried out to optimize the transmitted laser beam and the field-of-view of the receiver for minimizing outage probability under different channel conditions. The obtained analytical results can be applied to finding the optimal parameter values and designing ground-to-HAP FSO links without resorting to time-consuming simulations.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, accepted on May 22, 2020, for publication in IEEE/OSA Journal of Lightwave Technolog

Ziv-aflibercept in Diabetic Macular Edema: Relation of Subfoveal Choroidal Thickness with Visual and Anatomical Outcomes

Purpose: To evaluate the effects of intravitreal ziv-aflibercept injections (IVZ) on subfoveal choroidal thickness (SCT) as well as on central macular thickness (CMT) and on best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) changes in eyes with center-involved diabetic macular edema (CI-DME). Methods: Fifty-seven eyes of 36 patients with CI-DME were included in this prospective interventional case series. Structural optical coherence tomography (OCT) and enhanced depth imaging OCT were performed at baseline followed by three monthly 1.25 mg IVZ injections. Changes of SCT, CMT, and BCVA at each follow-up session were assessed. The association between baseline SCT and its monthly changes with final visual and anatomical outcomes were also assessed. Results: CMT at baseline, and at the first, second, and third month follow-up sessions were 396 ± 119, 344 ± 115, 305 ± 89, and 296 ± 101 μm, respectively (P-value < 0.001). SCT at baseline, and at months one, two, and three were 236 ± 47, 245 ± 56, 254 ± 54, and 241 ± 54 μm, respectively (Pvalue > 0.99). Corresponding figures for BCVA were 0.58 ± 0.29, 0.47 ± 0.31, 0.4 ± 0.24, and 0.37 ± 0.23 LogMAR, respectively (P-value < 0.001). There was a statistically significant positive correlation between BCVA and CMT changes following IVZ injections (P-value < 0.001). However, there were no significant correlations between SCT changes and visual acuity (VA) and CMT changes following IVZ injections. Conclusion: IVZ improved visual outcomes and macular thickness profiles in patients with CI-DME. However, IVZ had no significant effect on SCT. Baseline SCT and its monthly changes had no association with visual and anatomical outcomes

Chronic Total Occlusion-Angioplasty with Antegrade Approach: A two-Year Experience in “Modarres Hospital”, A Tertiary University Hospital, Tehran, Iran

Introduction: New techniques for the percutaneous treatment of coronary chronic total occlusions (CTO) have had a high success rate since a few years ago, so the interest for this treatment has been increasing these days.Methods: The current observational study was performed in Modarres hospital as a tertiary referral center. All the patients with documented stable angina who had failed to response to full guideline-mediated medical therapy, referred to our hospital, were candidates for coronary angiography. Antegrade strategy was applied for all these patients. The length of the lesion, the fluoroscopy time of the CTO angioplasty, consumed contrast volume, the number of guide wires used, whether a corsair or tornus micro-catheter was used or not, and the success rate of the angioplasty were documented for further analysis.Results: A total of 47 patients with documented stable angina were finally included. The median age was 59 (45-78) and 70.2% were male. The mean length of the lesion was 34.0 ± 1.1 .The mean fluoroscopy time and contrast volume were 57.9 ± 3.2 minutes and 525.9 ± 20.9 mL, respectively. In average, 2.2 guide wires were used. Corsair and tornus micro-catheters were applied in 30 (63.8%) and 5 (10.6%) of the cases, respectively. Seven complications (all including coronary dissection) occurred. In-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACE) rate was 10.6%, all of which were non-Q wave myocardial infarction. The success rate was 85.1%. The higher number of used wires, use of corsair, and tornus micro-catheter were not significantly concordant with success rate (P-value > 0.05); in addition, longer lesion was not concordant with unsuccessfulness rate (P-value > 0.05).Conclusions: Patient selection for CTO-angioplasty should be performed more carefully. Patients’ quality of life and risk of probable procedural complications and future cardiac events should be assessed to decide the best treatment approach. Radiation exposure, contrast consumption and fluoroscopy time are recommended to be monitored during the procedure and thresholds should be defined to enhance safety and efficacy

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens